A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
