Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
